The Makerfield constituency appears to be an attractive target for the Reform party in the upcoming by-election. Historically a stronghold for Labour since 1983, their majority was significantly reduced in the 2019 general election, making the seat more competitive. Reform UK emerged as the second-place contender with a notable increase in vote share.
Recent council elections also saw significant success for Reform in the area, indicating a favorable environment for the party. Notably, the majority of voters in Makerfield supported Brexit in the 2016 referendum, further aligning with Reform’s platform.
The entrance of Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, a popular figure within Labour, adds a new dynamic to the by-election. Analysts predict a “Burnham boost” of around 20 points in the polls, making him a narrow favorite. The outcome of this election holds immense significance for Burnham’s political future, with victory potentially positioning him as a formidable leader within the party.
Reform’s candidate, local plumber Robert Kenyon, is gearing up for a challenging yet symbolic battle in his hometown. The party aims to portray Burnham as an establishment figure, contrasting their outsider narrative. However, Burnham’s local connections and popularity among residents pose a formidable challenge for Reform’s campaign strategy.
As the campaign intensifies, both candidates are mobilizing their resources for what is shaping up to be a closely watched contest. The election will not only determine the constituency’s representation but also serve as a litmus test for the political landscape in the region.