In the previous federal election, Quebec witnessed a shift in focus from defending the province’s interests to standing up for Canada against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s tariff threats and rhetoric suggesting Canada could become the 51st state. The election results saw Mark Carney’s Liberals achieving their strongest performance in decades in Quebec, overshadowing debates on Quebec identity, secularism, and language with the noise from Washington.
As the provincial election commences today, speculation arises on whether the U.S. president could once again play a significant role. The recently imposed tariffs took center stage in the days leading up to the campaign launch, compelling every party leader to demonstrate their ability to protect Quebec from the economic repercussions.
Polls prior to the escalation of the trade war indicated that healthcare, housing, and the cost of living were key concerns for voters. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) faces a challenging reelection bid amidst a dissatisfied electorate and a focus on economic stability as a crucial issue for voters.
With Quebec heavily reliant on automotive, metals, and manufacturing exports, a report by Oxford Economics forecasts Quebec to be among the provinces most affected by the new tariffs. The leading Parti Québécois (PQ) leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, reassured voters by announcing no referendum until the end of Trump’s second term, emphasizing the election’s focus on Quebec’s future.
CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette, benefiting from her incumbency during these turbulent times, unveiled measures to support businesses affected by the tariffs. The CAQ aims to emulate Carney’s success in reviving an unpopular governing party, although comparisons are limited as the CAQ did not experience the same rapid rise in popularity.
The election campaign sees Fréchette’s opponents questioning her ability to navigate the current challenges effectively. Parties like the Quebec Liberals and Québec Solidaire present contrasting proposals to address the economic impact of the tariffs, while Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives propose substantial spending cuts and tax relief.
The upcoming election is poised to be a test of leadership amid the uncertainty caused by Trump’s policies and the trade war. The leader who can convey stability and confidence in navigating these challenges is likely to have the edge, although the ultimate outcome remains uncertain.