Keir Starmer’s Labour party is poised to suffer a significant setback in the upcoming local elections, with more than 1,800 councillors at risk of losing their seats, according to a leading elections analyst. Lord Robert Hayward predicts that the party’s losses will be widespread as voters prepare to participate in the elections next Thursday. The council elections are set to take place across England, with key votes also happening in Scotland and Wales, which is currently under Labour control.
Based on Lord Hayward’s assessment, the Labour Party is expected to see a decline of 1,850 seats nationwide, while Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party is likely to lose 600 councillors in seats last contested in 2021, following a boost in national polls due to the ‘vaccine bounce.’ Additionally, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, described as a right-wing party, is projected to emerge as the biggest beneficiary from the losses suffered by both Labour and the Tories, gaining 1,550 seats. Meanwhile, the Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, is anticipated to secure around 500 seats in London and affluent urban areas.
Lord Hayward expressed concerns that the Labour Party may not be fully prepared for the scale of the anticipated losses, attributing the challenges to a dual impact from Reform in the Midlands and North regions and the Green Party in major cities, particularly in London. The upcoming elections are crucial for Prime Minister Boris Johnson, following a tumultuous period in government highlighted by the Peter Mandelson scandal.
In a separate development, Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, suggested that Labour should consider a different approach post the May elections, acknowledging that the results are expected to be challenging and necessitate a moment of reflection. Despite facing obstacles in the past, Burnham did not rule out a potential return to Westminster, emphasizing the need for national reforms aligning with the local governance model he advocates for as mayor.
According to Lord Hayward’s analysis, the Liberal Democrats are poised to gain approximately 150 seats, while independent candidates are likely to secure around 250 seats. In total, more than 5,000 council seats will be up for grabs in the forthcoming elections, including all 32 boroughs in London.
A Labour campaign insider highlighted the party’s ongoing efforts to engage with voters and emphasized their positive narrative surrounding healthcare, local investment, and support for families facing economic challenges. The upcoming elections present a clear choice for voters between supporting Labour’s collaborative approach at the local and national levels or risking potential disruptions under the leadership of Nigel Farage and Reform.
Lord Hayward’s findings align with a recent YouGov poll indicating that Labour could face significant losses in London, with the Green Party making inroads into the party’s traditional voter base. However, election expert Professor Sir John Curtice emphasized the substantial gap between Labour and the Greens in London, suggesting that while the Greens may gain votes and a few seats, a major breakthrough for the party remains uncertain at this stage.