The United Nations has issued a warning about the impending return of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is expected to significantly raise temperatures worldwide in the near future. El Niño, a natural climate pattern that typically elevates global temperatures and decreases rainfall, is highly likely to occur before September with a 90% chance of persisting through November, as stated by The World Meteorological Organization.
Various national weather agencies have predicted that the upcoming El Niño event could potentially be one of the most intense on record, possibly leading to a “super” El Niño that surpasses previous occurrences. Although the impact of El Niño in the UK is usually milder compared to other regions, it can still result in extreme weather variations, such as colder winter temperatures and hotter summer conditions. The ongoing heatwave might just be the beginning of more extreme weather patterns.
Experts, including Professor Bill McGuire from University College London, anticipate that the rising global temperatures due to El Niño could lead to significantly hotter summers, possibly reaching over 40 degrees Celsius. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres emphasized the urgent need to address the threat of El Niño as a crucial climate warning for the world.
Guterres highlighted that El Niño conditions will aggravate the effects of global warming, causing more severe impacts that reach farther and faster across borders. The recommended response to this impending crisis is immediate climate action, including reducing reliance on fossil fuels, transitioning to renewable energy sources, protecting vulnerable populations, and implementing advanced early warning systems.
The last significant El Niño event occurred in 2023-24 and was among the strongest on record, contributing to a scorching summer that broke global temperature records. Despite the extreme heatwave in 2024, scientists are predicting that the upcoming El Niño could surpass previous intensities.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction at the UK Met Office, expressed confidence in the likelihood of a major El Niño event, potentially setting new records. If El Niño occurs this year, UN scientists warn that it could elevate the chances of 2027 becoming another record-breaking year in terms of climate extremes.