Britain’s population growth is projected to slow down due to decreased migration levels, leading to a more modest increase than previously estimated. The Office for National Statistics predicts an addition of 1.7 million people to the UK population between 2024 and 2034, reaching a total of 71.0 million. This is notably lower than earlier forecasts, reflecting a drop in net migration and expected lower fertility rates.
The UK population is expected to continue growing at a slower pace in the following decades, peaking at 72.5 million in 2054 before declining. Net migration is anticipated to be the primary factor driving population growth, with natural change turning negative from 2026 onward.
Projections indicate that England will reach its population peak in 2056, while Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland are expected to peak earlier. The overall growth projection for the UK population from 2024 to 2049 is estimated at 3.1 million, representing a 4.5% increase, a significant slowdown compared to previous years.
By 2034, the number of pensioners in the UK is forecasted to increase to 14.2 million, constituting 20.0% of the total population, while the proportion of children under 16 is expected to decrease. By 2054, when the population is predicted to peak, pensioners will make up 22.0% of the population.
Experts warn that the shift in demographics poses challenges for the pension system, with fewer workers supporting an increasing number of retirees. Stuart McDonald from LCP emphasizes the need for improved productivity and prevention strategies in healthcare to manage the growing elderly population. Further increases in the state pension age may be necessary to address these demographic changes.