A potent El Nino phenomenon emerging in the Pacific Ocean could lead to a surge in living costs, warned experts. The UN’s meteorological agency cautioned that this disruptive weather pattern is gaining strength rapidly, raising the likelihood of extreme events globally, such as heatwaves, droughts, and severe floods.
El Nino occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise significantly, altering global ocean currents and atmospheric air circulation. This year’s El Nino is anticipated to be notably robust, according to Gareth Redmond-King from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), exacerbating the ongoing challenges of climate change, economic instability, and global tensions.
The impact of El Nino may result in erratic weather patterns, swinging between extreme dry spells and heavy rainfall, disrupting essential crop harvests worldwide. Rice production is particularly vulnerable, with major exporting countries like India and Pakistan expected to face drier conditions under El Nino.
The reliance on food imports leaves countries like Britain susceptible to external weather shocks, as they import a significant portion of their food supply. Vulnerable nations, already struggling with climate change impacts, provided a substantial portion of the UK’s food imports last year.
In addition to impacting staple foods, a strong El Nino could drive up prices in the fruit and vegetable section. Climate expert Karen Green highlighted potential disruptions in the supply chain for items like tomatoes, peppers, green beans, and peas from countries like Morocco and Kenya.
The coffee industry could also face challenges due to a potent El Nino, affecting coffee-growing regions like Brazil and Vietnam. Climate-related disruptions, such as flooding and heat stress, could jeopardize coffee production and supply chains.
Furthermore, the fishing industry is experiencing the effects of El Nino, as warm ocean waters disrupt anchovy stocks in Peru, leading to concerns about declining populations and reduced fishing quotas as a precautionary measure.
El Nino-induced heatwaves can spike global electricity demand, particularly for refrigeration and air conditioning, along with energy-intensive irrigation systems in agriculture. The convergence of the El Nino phenomenon with ongoing global crises like the Strait of Hormuz tension and the Russia-Ukraine conflict could exacerbate electricity price hikes.
Despite the uncontrollable nature of El Nino, addressing climate change through measures like achieving net-zero emissions is crucial to mitigate its impacts. The potential repercussions of El Nino on cocoa production in West Africa, a key cocoa-producing region, may further escalate chocolate prices due to weather-related challenges.
While price increases due to El Nino may not be immediate, they are expected to manifest in the coming months, affecting commodities like coffee, cocoa, and rice. The negotiation process and lead time in price adjustments could delay the impact on retail prices, potentially leading to shortages and “shrinkflation” concerns.
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