A forthcoming referendum is on the horizon, but not immediately. Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon emphasized this stance in recent media engagements on Tuesday. Approximately a week before Quebec’s election campaign kickoff, St-Pierre Plamondon declared that a sovereignty plebiscite would not take place while U.S. President Donald Trump holds office. Trump’s term concludes on January 20, 2029. This decision grants St-Pierre Plamondon a window of over a year and a half to organize a referendum before the conclusion of his initial term, provided his party secures a majority in Quebec’s election on October 5.
In a conversation with CBC News, St-Pierre Plamondon elucidated his party’s plans prior to the election campaign. The forthcoming government aims to rectify issues instigated by the reigning Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ). St-Pierre Plamondon clarified, “It’s not a delay. We have consistently communicated our intent to conduct a referendum within the first four years. Now, we are offering more specifics.” He highlighted the influence of the U.S. situation on Canadian politics, citing Mark Carney’s fear-based campaign to overshadow Justin Trudeau’s tenure in voters’ minds.
St-Pierre Plamondon’s announcement arrives amidst economic unease surrounding imminent U.S. tariffs, which have previously impacted the Quebec economy significantly. Poll analyst Philippe Fournier pointed out that much remains uncertain before the provincial campaign begins, with the PQ marginally leading the Quebec Liberal Party in opinion polls. However, the majority of voters currently oppose another referendum.
Opposition parties swiftly criticized St-Pierre Plamondon’s decision. Conservative Party of Quebec leader Éric Duhaime labeled him a “referendum weather vane” for altering his stance shortly before the election. He questioned the trustworthiness of someone who previously vowed independence at any cost and then adjusted his position. Quebec Liberal Party Leader Charles Milliard interpreted the postponement as a sign that separating Quebec from Canada is a fragile concept, criticizing the PQ for lacking clarity in their intentions. Current premier and Coalition Avenir Québec leader Christine Fréchette condemned the announcement as “irresponsible” amid the impending tariffs.
Despite the PQ’s history of avoiding a third referendum since 1995, St-Pierre Plamondon insists that a PQ government would conduct a referendum within its first term. He believes that the clarified timeline will satisfy stakeholders and intends to run a comprehensive and transparent campaign. Fournier suggested that St-Pierre Plamondon’s strategy might resonate with soft nationalist voters who desire a change in leadership, though its effectiveness remains uncertain.
In essence, St-Pierre Plamondon’s decision not to pursue a referendum while Trump is in power aims to prevent the debate from being overshadowed by American political fluctuations.