Against a backdrop of strong language from the US President, threats of military action, and challenges during negotiations, Iran is unlikely to accept the latest proposals. It is remarkable that Iran seems to have the upper hand in these talks, fully aware of its ability to delay negotiations and cause embarrassment to Donald Trump.
Despite Trump’s aggressive rhetoric about military actions to control the Strait of Hormuz, it seems Iran was prepared for this scenario and is purposely provoking Trump, leveraging his predictable behavior. The proposed two-stage plan facilitated by Pakistan involves a ceasefire lasting over a month, aiming to eventually end the conflict and reopen the Strait. However, Iran, following the loss of its intelligence head in a recent bombing, has stated that the Strait will not revert to its previous state, particularly for the US and Israel.
Iran has already rejected a temporary ceasefire offer, citing concerns about potential attacks on its power facilities. The US’s track record of using peace talks as a cover for military strikes has eroded trust. While few would support Iran’s regime, its strategy of escalating tensions with the US is gaining public support for ending the conflict. Despite Trump’s warnings of severe consequences if an agreement is not reached, Iran remains defiant.
Having strategized for decades, Iran understands it cannot directly challenge the US and Israeli military forces. Instead, it has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global trade and pushing for international intervention to halt the war. Iran seeks to humiliate America, secure long-term guarantees, and avoid further attacks.
French President Emmanuel Macron has highlighted Trump’s continuous threats as a hindrance to ending the conflict. Iran’s military spokesperson emphasized the strategic rationale behind prolonging the war, aiming to make the enemy regret their actions. Iran is willing to endure losses to achieve its goals of humiliating Trump and exerting economic influence over the West.
The ongoing war serves Iran’s objectives better than Trump’s, as Iran’s calculated approach aims to achieve strategic superiority.