Canadian exports to China surged by 30% in the initial half of 2026, marking a 3.6% overall growth in trade compared to the previous year, as per data scrutinized by researchers from Statistics Canada. The figures, detailed in a recent report released by the Canada China Business Council and the University of Alberta’s China Institute, mirror the increasing ties between the two nations amid Canada’s efforts to diversify its economic relations amidst strained U.S. ties.
During the first half of 2026, the total trade in goods between Canada and China amounted to $66.6 billion, reflecting a 3.6% rise, with exports escalating by 30% to $21.74 billion year-on-year. Notably, the energy and minerals sector dominated the exports, constituting 58.4% of all domestic exports to China during that period. Particularly, the energy segment, including crude oil and liquefied propane, experienced an 81.8% growth, while exports of metal ores and non-metallic minerals, such as copper ore, surged by 29%.
The upsurge in exports to China has been attributed to several factors, including the improving diplomatic and economic relations between the two nations after years of tensions, particularly surrounding the arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in 2018. Moreover, Canada’s proactive stance to seek new trade agreements with other countries, in light of escalating trade disputes with the U.S., has propelled the surge in exports.
Additionally, the Trans Mountain Pipeline reaching 97% capacity in June has significantly enhanced Asia’s access to Western Canadian crude oil. The disruptions in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran have also contributed to higher oil prices, prompting customers to turn to alternative suppliers like Canada.
Despite the significant growth in exports, import numbers have seen a 5.8% decline year over year, reducing Canada’s trade deficit with China by 25%. This decline in imports has been partly influenced by a shift in manufacturing activities to countries like Vietnam.
The report highlights that while there has been notable progress in certain export sectors, overall agricultural performance has only seen modest growth. The authors emphasize the importance of diversifying trade partners and fortifying domestic markets to reduce reliance on a single trading partner like China.
Looking ahead, experts believe there is potential for further growth in engaging with the Asia-Pacific region, with China alone offering substantial market opportunities for Canadian businesses. With projections indicating a positive trajectory in exports to China, Canada appears to be on course to achieve its target of a 50% increase in exports to China by 2030, potentially surpassing this goal.