The United Kingdom has experienced four periods of exceptionally high temperatures this year, with a fifth heatwave expected to occur soon. Temperatures soared to 35C this week in southern and eastern parts of England, meeting the heatwave criteria. Although there may be a slight decrease in temperature over the weekend, another peak of 35C is anticipated in the near future.
According to the GFS weather model, temperatures are projected to rise on August 11, with potential highs of 31C across much of eastern, central, and southern England, as well as certain areas of Wales near the border. The data indicates a possibility of temperatures hitting 35C on August 12, with the Midlands and south-east regions expected to be the hottest, although temperatures as high as 33C could be seen as far north as Yorkshire.
On August 13, East Anglia could experience highs of 34C. The forecast shows that regions in central, southern, and eastern England, along with South Wales, could see temperatures ranging from 31-33C, marking the fifth official heatwave of 2026.
Official recognition of a heatwave occurs when temperatures surpass the ‘heatwave threshold’ for three consecutive days. The threshold is set at 28C in the south-east and decreases to 25C in regions farther from the south-east.
Temperature anomaly maps for August 11 to August 13 depict the UK shaded in dark red, indicating temperatures significantly above the seasonal norm. GFS model maps suggest that 11 counties in England could experience temperatures of 35C or higher later in the month.
The Met Office anticipates temperatures to become “very warm or hot” as August progresses, with a potential risk of thunderstorms in certain areas. The forecast for August 5 to August 14 suggests a variable period with intermittent rain or showers, alongside sunny intervals. There may be heavy showers or thunderstorms initially, followed by unsettled conditions in mid-August due to frontal systems from the Atlantic or warm air masses moving from the continent.
Overall, temperatures are expected to be slightly above average, with the likelihood of very warm or hot spells, particularly in the south, albeit not as intense as recent heatwaves.