The United States has issued a warning that Russia is preparing to carry out a military “provocation” against Poland in order to test the strength of NATO, as per reports. It has been communicated to Warsaw that this potential assault could involve targeting Polish critical infrastructure with missiles and drones or, in a more extreme scenario, the crossing of Russian troops into NATO territory.
Sources linked to Polish President Karol Nawrocki have informed the Polish outlet Onet that Washington has indicated the alleged scheme might occur in the coming months with the objective of escalating tensions and obstructing Western military and financial assistance to Ukraine. Recently, allies collectively pledged $4 billion in military aid to Ukraine.
A source close to Mr. Nawrocki stated that the US consistently updates Poland on new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO’s eastern flank, with Poland not being excluded from potential threats. Onet’s security sources have outlined various scenarios, including drone attacks on critical infrastructure and simulated air strikes. The most extreme possibility involves a “hybrid attack in the border region” by Russian or Belarusian forces.
In the event of such an incident, Russia could potentially present it as a mistake, such as troops unintentionally crossing into Polish territory due to a GPS malfunction. Polish sources have indicated that Russia may anticipate Poland, under US pressure, engaging in negotiations with Russia or Belarus instead of a forceful response. This scenario could lead to Moscow demanding an end to Western support for Ukraine in exchange for a withdrawal from Polish territory.
An ambassador to one of Poland’s NATO allies and a member of the Polish defense ministry have also expressed concerns to Onet about a significant risk of provocation in Poland or one of the Baltic states. A Baltic security source informed The Telegraph that discussions on such plans were ongoing in Moscow, with potential launch points being Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave or Belarus.
The International Institute of Strategic Studies recently released a report stating that Russia likely used shadow ships to deploy drones over Europe, monitoring military installations and testing NATO nations’ air defenses. The report documented 144 suspected drone sightings across Europe, including in NATO members such as Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK, and Denmark, between 2024 and 2026.
In late 2025, the sightings reached a peak, leading to the temporary closure of several European airports, including those in Germany, Spain, and Denmark. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen described the incidents in her country as the most severe attack on Danish critical infrastructure to date.