The UK may experience additional heatwaves before the end of August, according to the latest forecast from the Met Office. Weather models are indicating a shift towards more settled and warmer conditions as the month progresses, with potential for further heatwaves, especially towards the latter part of August.
Temperature anomaly maps support the Met Office’s assessment, showing regions in England turning dark red on August 4, suggesting temperatures could be more than five degrees above the long-term average. While projections for the middle and end of August are not yet available, the Met Office cautions that the exact locations, intensity, and duration of any potential heatwaves remain uncertain.
Highlighting the possibility but not certainty of future heatwaves, the Met Office emphasizes that overall temperatures are likely to be above average, with a risk of hot weather and heatwaves later in August. Factors influencing heatwave development include the positioning and strength of high pressure systems, air sources moving across the UK, and potential interruptions from Atlantic or thundery conditions.
In the short term, weather conditions from late July into early August are expected to be changeable, with a mix of sunny spells and occasional rain across many areas. While northwestern regions are likely to see more rainfall, there is a chance of dry conditions returning, particularly in the south, as high pressure may re-establish itself.
Winds are predicted to be mostly light to moderate, occasionally fresh or strong along coastal areas, especially in the north. Temperatures are forecast to be near or above normal, with warmer conditions expected in the south and the possibility of turning very warm again at the beginning of August.
Recent findings from the Met Office suggest a high likelihood of surpassing the current warmest year on record by 2024, with global temperatures potentially exceeding pre-industrial levels by 1.5C in the next five years. If global warming surpasses the 1.5C target set in the Paris Agreement, the risks of severe climate impacts, including ecosystem damage, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels, become significantly greater.