When the collective group of MPs shifts its stance, it does so decisively.
The scenario Boris Johnson recounted about his own MPs rebelling against him during his ousting in 2022 is now playing out again as Keir Starmer faces a precarious hold on power.
Rapid developments are unfolding, with the final outcome remaining uncertain. However, there is a noticeable trend leaning towards Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, as anxious MPs seek a way out of their electoral stagnation by looking towards the North.
An attempt by backbencher Catherine West to instigate a leadership challenge seemed likely to thwart Burnham’s prospects initially. Yet, under mounting pressure, she has now shifted her stance and is urging the Prime Minister to outline a clear timeline for his departure.
A discussion around the concept of a set timeline is gaining traction among many MPs, essentially signaling a call for allowing Burnham the opportunity to return to Parliament.
Burnham enjoys a rare level of popularity among voters at a time when public sentiment towards most politicians is negative. Nevertheless, he faces considerable obstacles before contemplating a leadership bid.
According to Labour’s regulations, only MPs are eligible to participate in a leadership contest, which poses a challenge for Burnham as he currently lacks a parliamentary seat. His previous attempt to run in the Gorton and Denton by-election in February was blocked by Labour’s governing National Executive Committee (NEC).
Hence, he needs to secure the voluntary withdrawal of an MP to trigger a by-election in a winnable constituency. Subsequently, he requires the NEC’s approval of his candidacy. While Starmer still wields influence over the NEC, he may not possess the authority to obstruct his rival’s candidacy this time around.
Former Deputy PM Angela Rayner has advocated for Burnham’s right to stand, a sentiment echoed by prominent figures like Lisa Nandy and Sadiq Khan.
For Burnham to proceed, he must first win the parliamentary seat, a challenging task given the competitive presence of Reform and the Greens. Additionally, he needs the backing of 81 MPs to qualify for a leadership challenge. Notably, Burnham has faced resistance within Labour ranks and previously made two unsuccessful attempts to lead the party.
Starmer has made it known that he will confront any challenger and automatically be included in the leadership ballot as the incumbent leader of the Labour Party. Furthermore, there are other potential contenders to contend with, particularly Rayner and Wes Streeting.
Rayner has thrown her support behind Burnham’s return to Parliament, with the two having held private meetings in recent weeks. While awaiting the outcome of an HMRC investigation into her tax affairs, following her admission of underpaying taxes on her seaside property, concerns linger among MPs who would have endorsed her candidacy, fearing this challenge might be insurmountable even if she is cleared by HMRC. Rayner might opt to align with Burnham but is presently maintaining a reserved stance.
Meanwhile, speculation surrounding Health Secretary Wes Streeting potentially intervening early to preclude Burnham from contesting has been widespread. Nonetheless, his camp has indicated that he does not intend to take preemptive action.
Despite the current uncertainties, Downing Street remains optimistic that the Prime Minister can weather the storm and deliver a unifying King’s Speech to rally MPs together.
The longer his competitors deliberate, the stronger the PM’s position becomes. Nonetheless, the looming challenge from the North remains a persistent threat.