In the discourse of some Alberta separatists, the main focus is not solely on breaking away from Canada but rather on strengthening trade ties with the province’s neighboring country to the south.
Keith Wilson, a key figure in the independence movement, highlighted in a recent social media post that Alberta’s proximity to the largest global economy and its efficient trade routes make the United States a crucial trade partner. The central issue, according to Wilson, lies in the control exerted by the government in Ottawa.
Alberta, known for its significant oil production of five million barrels per day, heavily relies on exporting more than two-thirds of its oil to the United States, making it a vital export for Canada.
While a graphic shared by Wilson depicts a direct flow of goods south from Alberta, the reality is far more complex. Most of Alberta’s oil is transported through pipelines that traverse other provinces before reaching the United States.
For instance, only a fraction of Canada’s total export pipeline capacity is directly linked from Alberta to the U.S., with the majority of oil passing through British Columbia and Manitoba. Similarly, natural gas exports from Alberta also follow routes through other provinces before reaching the United States.
In the event of Alberta’s independence, negotiations would be necessary to ensure the smooth flow of goods through neighboring provinces to reach U.S. markets. However, the complexities of establishing new trade agreements and transshipment processes would need to be navigated from scratch.
Despite historical agreements like the 1977 Pipeline Treaty that facilitate the flow of Alberta oil through specific provinces, forging new trade deals post-secession would present challenges. The intricate nature of negotiating transshipment terms and ensuring seamless trade routes would require careful deliberation and cooperation among all parties involved.
Moreover, the existing interdependence on trade routes and goods between Alberta and the rest of Canada could influence the approach to transshipments post-secession. The extent to which trade relationships and transit agreements would remain unchanged following Alberta’s potential independence remains uncertain, awaiting further negotiations and agreements.