Russia’s oil exports via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026 have surpassed last year’s figures by almost 50%, with around 20 million barrels shipped to Asia from July to mid-October, according to traders and data. The NSR connects Russia’s western ports to Asian markets through icy Arctic waters, known for being a more hazardous and costly route. However, this year, it became a more attractive option due to disruptions in other key shipping routes such as the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea region.
The surge in tanker freight rates to record levels is attributed to conflicts with Iran and in Ukraine, leading to inflation and making U.S. crude oil less accessible for Asian refiners. As a result, they have turned to alternative sources from the Middle East and Latin America. Despite the high tariffs for NSR usage, which involves icebreaker assistance, it has become a more economical choice compared to the traditional route through the Red Sea to Asia, as mentioned by traders.
For Russia, which controls the NSR, this route offers a secure alternative to European waters, where tankers carrying Russian oil have faced regular detentions this year. Traders estimate that the volume of Russian oil exported via the Arctic route will increase by an additional five to ten million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Gazprom Neft, a major Russian oil company, plans to boost its NSR shipments by approximately 35% this year compared to 2025, as stated by CEO Alexander Dyukov. Russia also transports significant amounts of liquid natural gas (LNG) to Asia through the NSR, with expectations of a rise this year following the commencement of Arctic LNG shipments.
During an economic forum in Vladivostok in September, President Vladimir Putin expressed Russia’s anticipation of doubling cargo turnover via the NSR to 70 million tonnes annually by the end of the decade. The recent launch of Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project in northern Russia has already contributed to the increasing volumes utilizing the NSR.