The El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen through 2027 and could become the most intense on record, increasing the likelihood of severe weather events next year, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Speaking at a press briefing in Geneva, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo mentioned that if the current trend continues, this El Niño could surpass any previous occurrences monitored over the past four decades.
The UN weather agency stated that its projections indicate a nearly 100% chance that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by unusually warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This high level of certainty is unprecedented, as noted by the WMO.
A powerful El Niño has the potential to significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather phenomena such as typhoons. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the unprecedented scale of the current El Niño event, highlighting the warming trend of the planet.
El Niño is characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakened trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts up to 12 months, causing intense precipitation and droughts across Latin America.
The ongoing El Niño has already impacted agricultural regions in tropical areas, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO anticipates that the El Niño will peak later this year but will continue to influence global temperatures into 2027, leading to warmer conditions.
Saulo emphasized that the WMO is enhancing its preparedness and early warning systems to mitigate potential risks. She reiterated the organization’s commitment to collaborating with UN partners and the humanitarian sector to provide crucial climate information for disaster management and sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.