After a prolonged period of trailing behind Reform, the Labour party has now surged ahead in recent polls. According to a survey conducted by More In Common, Labour has taken a lead of four percentage points over Reform, with 28% support compared to Reform’s 24%.
Further reinforcing this trend, separate polling by Survation the following day indicated that Labour, under the leadership of Andy Burnham, has surpassed Nigel Farage’s Reform party, polling at 26% against Reform’s 24%. A third poll conducted later in the week showed an even wider gap, with Labour at 28% and Reform at 23%.
In a significant victory, Labour also secured the Greater Manchester Mayoralty election, with Bev Craig winning by a substantial margin of 309,525 votes to Reform’s Sian Astley’s 157,178 votes. This win marks Reform’s sixth consecutive by-election loss, in addition to a defeat in a mayoral race.
The recent surge in support for Labour, dubbed the “Burnham bounce,” coincides with a resurgence in the Tory party’s popularity as it attracts back voters who had previously shifted allegiance to Reform. In contrast, the Green Party, which had earlier aimed to replace Labour, has seen a sharp decline to just 8% in the polls, as reported by More in Common.
The question arises whether the long-established two-party system, seemingly dismissed in recent times, will endure, and if Reform is facing a downward spiral. Experts suggest that the recent shift can be attributed to a series of policy initiatives by the new Prime Minister, including reductions in energy bills, support for pubs, and the introduction of a cap on bus travel costs.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice noted the “Burnham bounce” phenomenon and the decline in support for Reform UK. He highlighted the impact of recent events, such as allegations of undeclared support for Farage and his decision to contest a by-election, which contributed to Reform’s stagnant support at 24%.
Despite the positive momentum for Labour, concerns remain about its narrow lead and the need for sustained efforts to address key issues such as the cost of living, NHS waiting times, and broader policy challenges. The Conservative Party, under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, has also seen a resurgence, benefiting from Reform’s setbacks.
While the recent developments suggest a strengthening of the positions of the major parties, the intricacies of Britain’s electoral system add complexity to the political landscape. Analysts caution that Labour must build on the current momentum to secure lasting support and address voter concerns effectively.